Несколько подходов к моделированию динамики доходов населения в условиях эпидемии

V. S. Petrakova; O. I. Krivorotko

doi:10.51790/2712-9942-2023-4-1-04

Vol 4 No 1 (2023), Papers

Vol 4 No 1 (2023)

Approaches to the Simulation of Personal Income Variations During Epidemics

Papers

https://doi.org/10.51790/2712-9942-2023-4-1-04

Published March 31, 2023

V. S. Petrakova^∗⁻
O. I. Krivorotko^∗⁻

V. S. Petrakova

Institute of Computational Modeling, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation

http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1126-2148

O. I. Krivorotko

Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics, Novosibirsk, Russian Federation; Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk, Russian Federation

http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0125-4988

PDF (Russian)

Keywords

COVID-19
macroeconomics
epidemics
optimal control problems

How to Cite

1.

Petrakova V.S., Krivorotko O.I. Approaches to the Simulation of Personal Income Variations During Epidemics // Russian Journal of Cybernetics. 2023. Vol. 4, № 1. P. 24-32. DOI: 10.51790/2712-9942-2023-4-1-04.

Abstract

this study proposes two models representing the impact of the virus spread on such macroeconomic metrics as the labor force size and per capita income. The first model combines the SIR compartmental epidemics modeling and the Lotka-Volterra model. The second one extends the proposed differential model to the optimal control problem. The simulation results are compared with each other and real-world data for the Novosibirsk Region, 2020–2021. We used several scenarios for the optimal control model to further expand the model to other economic and epidemiological conditions.

https://doi.org/10.51790/2712-9942-2023-4-1-04

PDF (Russian)

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