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<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD JATS (Z39.96) Journal Archiving and Interchange DTD with OASIS Tables with MathML3 v1.4 20241031//EN" "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/archiving/1.4/JATS-archive-oasis-article1-4-mathml3.dtd">
<article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:ali="http://www.niso.org/schemas/ali/1.0/" dtd-version="1.4" article-type="research-article" xml:lang="en"><front><journal-meta><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Успехи кибернетики</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn publication-format="electronic">2712-9942</issn></journal-meta><article-meta><article-categories><subj-group><subject>Other</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title xml:lang="ru">Сравнение ансамблевых методов машинного обучения при решении задачи прогнозирования окончания периода заморозков</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Comparison of Ensemble Machine Learning Methods for Predicting the End of the Frost Period</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name-alternatives><name xml:lang="ru"><surname>Солозобов</surname><given-names>В. А.</given-names></name><name xml:lang="en"><surname>Solozobov</surname><given-names>V. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"/><email>solo.val.al@yandex.ru</email></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name-alternatives><name xml:lang="ru"><surname>Лысенкова</surname><given-names>С. А.</given-names></name><name xml:lang="en"><surname>Lysenkova</surname><given-names>S. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"/><email>lsa1108@mail.ru</email></contrib><aff-alternatives id="aff1"><aff><institution xml:lang="en">Surgut State University</institution><city xml:lang="en">Surgut</city><country xml:lang="en">Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff2"><aff><institution xml:lang="ru">Сургутский государственный университет</institution><city xml:lang="ru">Сургут</city><country xml:lang="ru">Российская Федерация</country></aff></aff-alternatives></contrib-group><pub-date pub-type="epub" iso-8601-date="2026-06-30"><day>30</day><month>06</month><year>2026</year></pub-date><volume>7</volume><issue>2</issue><fpage>132</fpage><lpage>138</lpage><history><date date-type="received" iso-8601-date="2026-03-05"><day>05</day><month>03</month><year>2026</year></date><date date-type="accepted" iso-8601-date="2026-03-22"><day>22</day><month>03</month><year>2026</year></date></history><self-uri xlink:href="https://ru.jcyb.ru/nisii_tech/article/view/511" xlink:title="https://ru.jcyb.ru/nisii_tech/article/view/511">https://ru.jcyb.ru/nisii_tech/article/view/511</self-uri><self-uri content-type="pdf" xlink:href="publication-331198f4-9ced-4162-aa17-16110d58460e.pdf" xlink:title="PDF"/><abstract xml:lang="ru"><p>в статье приводится сравнение результатов применения ансамблевых методов машинного обучения для решения задачи прогнозирования завершения периода заморозков. Дано краткое описание ансамблевых методов. Представлены результаты исследования зависимости влияния различных наборов гиперпараметров и входных данных на обучение оптимальной модели. Сделаны выводы о качестве получаемых моделей с помощью различных вариаций градиентного бустинга, случайного леса и линейной модели. В работе приведены результаты применения библиотек, реализующих методы машинного обучения: XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost, Random Forest (scikit-learn), логистическая регрессия.</p></abstract><abstract xml:lang="en" abstract-type="summary"><p>we studied the performance of ensemble machine learning methods for predicting the end of the frost period. We provided a brief overview of the considered ensemble approaches and investigated how different hyperparameter settings and input data configurations affect model training. We applied several tools, including gradient boosting methods (XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost), random forest (scikit-learn), and logistic regression (scikit-learn), compared the resulting models, and assessed their predictive quality. The results show differences in performance across methods and highlight the impact of hyperparameter tuning and input data selection on prediction accuracy.</p></abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>ансамблевые методы машинного обучения</kwd><kwd>градиентный бустинг</kwd><kwd>период заморозков</kwd><kwd>прогноз заморозков</kwd><kwd>временные ряды</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>ensemble machine learning methods</kwd><kwd>gradient boosting</kwd><kwd>frost period</kwd><kwd>frost prediction</kwd><kwd>time series</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><ref id="ref1"><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xml:lang="ru">Солозобов В. А., Лысенкова С. А. 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